[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250055
SWODY1
SPC AC 250053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
EFK 35 WNW ALB 25 NNW AVP 15 NNW CXY LUK 35 NNW EVV 40 SW SZL 25 NW
CNU 10 SSW ICT 40 N CSM 25 NNE CDS 25 NNW PVW 20 N CVS 45 SE LVS 35
NNE LVS 45 SE ALS 50 WSW COS 10 W COS 25 NNE TAD 20 E EHA 25 SW DDC
35 N RSL 35 ENE CNK 15 E STJ 45 ENE UIN 50 E TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLG SOW 25 S GNT 40
WNW 4SL CEZ 25 SSW 4BL 25 ENE BCE 40 SSE CDC FLG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 60 E BLH 15
NW EED 50 W LAS 40 NNW NID 25 NNE FAT 45 S TVL 20 NNW TVL 60 NNW SVE
30 E MFR 30 ESE PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE FCA 15 NNE LVM 10 S
81V 45 WNW AKO 40 E LIC 30 NNE STJ 50 SSE CGX 25 NE TOL ...CONT...
20 N HUL 15 NNW PWM 15 N BAF 25 S ABE 45 E MGW 30 S PKB 15 WSW CRW
35 WSW BKW PSK 25 S LYH 50 NE RWI 25 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BWD 30 NNE FTW
25 E ADM 45 NW MLC 45 NW FYV 25 SE UMN 45 W ARG 15 NNW ARG 25 ESE
POF 30 SSE CGI 20 NNE CGI 50 NW CGI 55 SE VIH 25 WSW TBN 40 NNW JLN
PNC 30 SW END 20 SE CSM 40 ESE CDS 75 S CDS 55 WNW ABI 40 WSW ABI 40
W BWD 45 SE BWD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...OH/PA/NY...
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS
ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OH VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE...AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS (65KT AT 500MB BASED ON BUF
RAOB) ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC MAY PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
PROGRESSES ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE WELL DEFINED THERMAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STORMS AROUND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL
STORMS EXIST FROM KS INTO NRN MO. WHILE SOME OF THE PNHDL ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL SURGE INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY STRONG
INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
POSE THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY
MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFT ALONG FRONT AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL COULD SUSTAIN SEVERE STORM HAZARDS
INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN OK.

POST FRONTAL STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST...TN
VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST/FL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD OUT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX. WHILE THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...A FEW
STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.

...ROCKIES/WEST...
ABUNDANT MOUNTAIN STORMS NOTED FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND UPPER
COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS CONVECTION WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OCCURRING IN WEAK SHEAR
WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FROM
SERN ID TO NERN NM. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BELT. GREATEST PROSPECT FOR MORE SUSTAINED
SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FROM SERN CO INTO NM THIS EVENING AS
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW/FRONTAL SURGE... SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
IS MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.