[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250529
SWODY1
SPC AC 250528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
P07 40 SE ONM 20 W ABQ 55 SW ALS GUC 25 WNW EGE 45 SE RKS 40 SE LND
30 ENE RIW 15 W CPR 30 NNE LAR 50 WSW SNY 20 SSE AKO 45 SE LIC 55
SSE LHX 25 SW DHT 20 W PVW 55 NNE BGS 40 W ABI 35 ESE SJT 40 NW HDO
65 WSW COT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CRE 20 NW FLO 45 ENE MCN 35 E CSG 20 NE MGM 25 S BHM 25 SSE HSV 20
NNW TYS 35 NW TRI 25 NE PKB 15 NW PSB 20 SW BGM 15 SSW ALB 10 NNE
PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX
20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW
P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH 20 NW TVL 30
ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 65 NNE MFR
40 W RDM 45 NW RDM 45 S DLS 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 ESE
SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT
20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 40 SE 81V 35 NE ANW 30 W OFK 30 SW LNK 25 ESE
MHK 20 E ICT 25 NNW END 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN
25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 30 S ROC 20 S SYR 35 N GFL
25 NW MWN 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N PLN 40 NE ESC 35 E
MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM AL/GA TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST FROM
WEST TX TO WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING WITHIN THE ERN SECTOR OF THE
BLOCK...FROM CNTRL CANADA...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...TO THE
NORTHEAST. PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP VORTEX
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS THIS
PERIOD AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH MEAN FLOW ON
SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WLYS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN
PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IMPULSE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA AND NRN NJ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM ID TO THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS.

...SOUTH/SRN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC...
DESPITE MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SPREAD NEWD ATOP A VERY MOIST AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
AL/GA AREA EARLY...TO NC/VA AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
EAST. SEVERAL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS SURFACE LOW EVOLVES
ACROSS ERN VA DURING THE EVENING. COINCIDENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO AID STORM INITIATION
WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM WV PNHDL TO ERN PA AND NRN NJ.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SRH... A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY...VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

...SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN AXIS OF PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING AT LEAST 1000
J/KG IS LIKELY FROM SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EITHER
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
COMPOSITE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE BACKED WELL INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM NM NWWD ACROSS CO AND WY. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
ERUPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTENSIFY AS GREATER DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN MOIST/FRONTAL AXIS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
SUSTAIN/ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DESPITE MARGINAL
SHEAR. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH/FL...
WEAKLY CAPPED TROPICAL AIRMASS AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTMS. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST
ACROSS SRN FL WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG HEATING.
NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL ARE LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE
FRONTS ACROSS FL WHILE A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH
STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM ID
INTO NRN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.