[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242000
SWODY1
SPC AC 241959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BML ALB 40 NNE CXY ZZV ALN ICT 40 ESE P28 60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E
LVS 25 NW RTN 50 NNW LAA 10 WSW GLD 25 NW CNK STJ IRK BMI FWA 10 ESE
DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
7R4 30 NW MCB 40 WSW TCL 15 SSE ANB 15 SW LGC TOI 30 NE CEW 25 SSW
CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN
25 ENE EED DRA 10 WNW TVL MHS MFR PDX 35 NNE CLM ...CONT... 65 NW
HVR HVR REJ MHN LBF OTM SBN MTC ...CONT... 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM 30
SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR LUK MVN TBN 30 ESE CNU 20 N CSM CDS 70 NNW ABI 40
WNW MWL ADM 20 NW MKO 25 SSE SGF POF CKV LOZ SHD 10 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC
30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
STATES....

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET
STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA...MUCH AS INDICATED BY LATEST MODEL
FORECASTS.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING ALONG FRONT
SURGING INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
BROKEN NARROW SQUALL LINE.

SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR FRONT/LAKE
BREEZES FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN OHIO. DEW POINTS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING TO NEAR 60F IN A NARROW BAND...AND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 80S...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY
APPROACH 1000 J/KG BEFORE 25/00Z.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  PRIMARILY
THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS TOWARD EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
RATHER SHARP SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ABOVE INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.  THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WITH BROKEN NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT
...FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. 
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED IN THE 24/21-23Z TIME
FRAME...AND VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST TIL AROUND
25/02Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES...
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN CONFLUENT LOW/MID
-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW FROM IDAHO
INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES.  GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT
FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WITH
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS
SUPPORTING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA. 
GIVEN PRESENCE OF MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION...BELT OF MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID EVENING HOURS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.