[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241632
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BML 25 NW LEB 30 NW IPT 15 NNW ZZV 15 SE STL 50 SSE OJC 40 ESE P28
60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 25 NW RTN 25 W LHX 30 WNW HLC 35 W
PIA 50 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
BPT 30 SSW ESF 30 W JAN 35 NNE MEI 30 WSW SEM 30 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT
25 S GNT 15 NE DRO 30 W MTJ 25 NW 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB
40 NE SHR 35 SE RAP 55 WSW YKN 20 E ALO 25 SSE MKE 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC
30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MWL 50 ESE OKC
45 W TUL 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 10 ESE CDS 70 NW ABI 45 WNW MWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM
30 SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR 45 E LUK 55 SE LUK 30 SE HTS 40 ENE SSU 20 ENE
SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN
25 ENE EED 60 WSW ELY 45 SSE 4LW 25 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 30 NE CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORNING MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS SEVERE FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER OUTLOOKS...THOUGH ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
RISK OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST APPEARS WARRANTED.  PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS TIED TO INTENSE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN U.S./GREAT
LAKES TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  

...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN CANADA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND/NRN OH AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP WITH H5 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AOB -12C. 
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AID
IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z
OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IN/NRN OH AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN MI.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED SEWD ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MEAN
WINDS/SHEAR VECTORS WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY AND ACT TO INHIBIT
ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. 

FARTHER NORTHEAST...STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF
THE LOWER LAKES AND PROGRESS EWD INTO WRN NY AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING.  INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
IMPRESSIVE OVER THIS AREA WITH SBCAPES AOB 1500 J/KG. 
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ADDED INFLUENCE FROM TAIL END OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN CANADA SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE
EVENING.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY
EVOLVES INTO SMALL LINES.  HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS FAIL TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER LINE.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
APPEARS COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW FAVOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/...DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SWD
MOVING DOWNBURST CLUSTER SPREADING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN
CO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND POSSIBLY NWRN OK THROUGH THE
EVENING.

...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN KS...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE LIMITED ALONG THIS
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS COMPARED TO
AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...UPPER TX/LA COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY
BOOST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT
RISK...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS AND
SPREAD ENEWD.  /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1404 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION./  

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM SERN CO NWWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY.  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STRONGER STORMS LATER
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.