[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241248
SWODY1
SPC AC 241246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BML 25 NW LEB 20 SE BFD 25 WNW CMH 50 S UIN 25 SSE EMP 15 E GAG 50
NE AMA 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 10 WSW RTN 30 NNE TAD 20 S HSI 30 NNW BRL
20 ESE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN
45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW
U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45
SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM
UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP
20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW
ESC 25 NNE RHI 45 SE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15 N
BGR 10 SE PSF 15 N AVP 20 E CMH 30 S HUF 10 E BLV 40 E SGF 40 E HRO
15 SE POF 35 E MDH 45 NE SDF 20 S CRW 20 ENE CHO 15 NW NHK WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT
25 S GNT 40 SSE FMN 10 WSW CEZ 65 S 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BWD 50 N ADM 50
ENE OKC 25 ESE CSM 30 NW CDS 10 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 55 NE BGS 25 NW
BWD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO NWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS INTENSE VORTICITY MAX OVER SERN ONTARIO EVOLVES INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER WRN QUEBEC. A BROAD BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES...WITH EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...PRIOR TO
LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SERN QUEBEC SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT OCCLUDES OVER WRN QUEBEC LATER TODAY. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS
CNTRL IL/IND INTO CNTRL KS AT THIS TIME.

...NWRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SW WILL AID IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO NY
AND PORTIONS OF NWRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG. FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF STRONG ASCENT RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS / PER
VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS/. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY NEWD INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

WHILE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER QUEBEC...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE MAY LOCALLY BACK SURFACE
WINDS AS FAR S AS NRN UPSTATE NY INTO NRN VT. IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
KS INTO SERN CO AND NWRN OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY ERODE CAP TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION LIKELY BEING THE
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SWD/SWWD-PROPAGATING MCS WHICH
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS...NWRN OK AND NERN NM THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PACIFIC NW...
ENHANCED UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
LARGELY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES TODAY. ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR W AS ERN WA/NERN ORE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES PER 12Z
SPOKANE SOUNDING.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST.
AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS NEWD...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THOUGH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...12Z
LCH SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3KM AGL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN
ADDITION TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.