[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240606
SWODY1
SPC AC 240604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
EFK 35 NNW GFL 30 ESE BFD 30 W CMH 45 NW STL 40 NNE CNU 25 ENE GAG
45 NE AMA 40 NE TCC 40 WNW TCC RTN 25 NE TAD 25 S GLD 20 NNW HLC 35
SW EAR 20 NNW BIE 15 W LWD 10 WNW MMO 10 SSW SBN 15 SE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN
45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW
U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45
SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM
UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP
20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW
ESC 25 NNE RHI 60 SSE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15
ESE LCI 10 SE PSF 20 NNW AVP 15 W PSB 10 SW HLG 35 ENE LUK 30 ESE
BMG 25 NE MVN 45 SW BLV 30 ESE SGF 35 NW FYV 30 SW TUL 20 ENE OKC 20
S CSM 30 NW CDS 15 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 50 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 20 ENE BWD
35 WSW DUA 10 ENE MLC 35 SE HRO 15 ENE PAH 30 SSE SDF 20 S CRW 20 S
SHD 40 E RIC 30 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT
25 S GNT 45 W 4SL FMN 45 NNW GUP 45 ENE INW 35 NE SOW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A NARROW ZONE FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO WRN NY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN NORTH AMERICA OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY DEEP POLAR VORTEX MAKING UP THE DOWNSTREAM/ERN FLANK OF
THE BLOCK AND CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SRN CANADA CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE
NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE VORTEX WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER SCALE LOW TO THE NORTH OF MN BY EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
WRN/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS RESULT IN FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS
THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND NERN NM THROUGH LATE TODAY WHILE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AND BACKED INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ROCKIES FROM WY TO MT.

IN THE SOUTH...A WEAK SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS TX
WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM THE NWRN
GULF COAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A BELT OF STRONGER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OF 25-35KT IS FCST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THE SERN FLANK OF A SUBTLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS TXK REGION.

...MIDWEST TO NY...
LINEAR MCS NOW CROSSING LOWER MI IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH MORNING AS AIRMASS FROM IND/OH TO WRN NY BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE COLD FRONT WILL AID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET COUPLED
WITH 40-50KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID STORM PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR BUT A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. FAST MOVING STORMS AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ATOP STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. A FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING ACROSS KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE
500-1500 J/KG RANGE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN KS LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT. DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WRN KS WILL FAVOR
OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH A PROPENSITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
RH/CAPE FARTHER EAST WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS REGION WITH
SOME CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.

...ROCKIES...
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND PREDOMINANCE OF DIURNAL/MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND/OR WIND.

...TX GULF COAST ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT LINKED TO DEEP CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ACT ON VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS COULD ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT GREATER
ORGANIZATION AS BAND OF STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NEWD FROM THE TX GULF
COAST ACROSS LA/SRN MS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BUT ANY STORMS MOVING INTO AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.