[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
MKG 25 NE JVL 25 WSW LNR VOK 40 E AUW 45 NNW MBL 20 SE TVC 20 WSW
HTL 50 NE MKG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
CTB 30 E 3HT 40 E WRL 40 WNW COD 30 ENE 3DU 60 ENE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
DTW 50 S SBN 25 WNW BRL 30 SSW ALO 35 SSE EAU 30 ESE RHI 10 E APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
SAV 35 NW SAV 20 SSE AND 40 SSW CLT 40 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 15 WNW CAK
20 WNW IND 45 E STJ 30 NNW MHK 40 WSW SNY 35 SSW LHX 10 SSW LBL 60 W
SJT 65 SSW SJT 35 E SEP 40 SSW PRX 30 S HOT 10 NW UOX 25 SSW CSV 25
NE ROA 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 SE
YUM 25 ENE IGM 60 NNW P38 55 SE NFL 10 NNW BIH 50 ENE MER 10 E SVE
70 ENE 4LW 10 WSW ALW 40 E EPH 30 N EPH 20 W EAT 55 ENE BLI
...CONT... 50 NW HVR 30 WSW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 20 W MHE 25 WSW MKT 30 SE
DLH 35 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND SERN
WI AND WRN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GRETA LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES IN MT/WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NC AND
CNTRL AND ERN SC...

...SCNTRL WI TO SRN LWR MI...
A CORRIDOR OF HIGH-END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN WI AS A FAST MOVING AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST AT 50-60KT.
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET STREAK
AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS NOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM MN. CONVECTION
INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ON THE COLD FRONT NOW APPEAR TO BE TAPPING
INTO AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE CORN BELT. MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... SUSTAINED
ASCENT ALONG WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT LYING ACROSS SRN
WI...AND STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-90KT WILL SUSTAIN
SUPERCELL HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS LM AND INTO
LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE...
LIFT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PROBABILITY WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT FROM
NEB SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER.

...MT/WY...
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW ON/BEHIND FRONTAL SURGE AND STRONG DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES/UPPER MO RIVER
VALLEY. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TOPPED BY STRONGER NWLY
FLOW WAS RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

...SERN TX...
WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER REMNANT
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE LOW CENTER WITH TIME AS AREAS AWAY FROM DEEPER ASCENT SLOWLY
STABILIZE. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD
MARGINALLY SUPPORT WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

...SOUTHEAST...
SEVERAL WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING AND
SUPERIMPOSED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WAS
BUILDING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG HEATING DURING THE
DAY AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NC COASTAL PLAIN...ACROSS THE
LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ARC OF STORMS DEVELOPING
EAST INTO PORTIONS OF W/CNTRL SC. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY
STABILIZE...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING.

..CARBIN.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.