[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232005
SWODY1
SPC AC 232003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 50
SW SBN BRL CID ALO 10 ENE SPW ATY 55 N ATY 45 S BJI 35 S DLH IWD 45
E MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
CRE SAV AYS ABY DHN 40 NW PNS 10 W GPT 30 SSW LUL 25 E 0A8 GAD 45
ENE HSV CHA CHA AND 10 SSW CLT 45 E DAN RIC 40 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 10 NNW BLH
35 NNW DAG 60 WNW BIH 10 N TVL RBL MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E SEA 25 NE BLI
...CONT... 60 ENE HVR MLS REJ PHP 9V9 YKN 35 N ABR FAR GFK 70 NNE
DVL ...CONT... 15 NE EFK ART BUF MFD IND MTO IRK CNK RSL 10 WNW DDC
CDS MAF 65 N DRT JCT BWD MKO FYV JBR LEX CRW MGW HGR 35 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB 40 N BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUC PGA 50 NNW INW
INW 50 ENE SOW GUP CEZ MTJ ASE CAG RWL 35 SSE RKS PUC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CENTRAL
CANADIAN CLOSED LOW.  MODELS INDICATE THIS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING /FROM 70 TO 90 KT AT 500 MB/...AS IT TURNS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TENDENCY
SHOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 80F TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS FRONT...AND...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE MAY INCREASE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE 24/02-03Z TIME
FRAME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TO THE SOUTH/EAST...LACK OF MORE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAKER FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD ALONG
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS JET WILL
INTENSIFY BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IN SOURCE REGION
FOR LIFTED PARCELS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING.

...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH VERY MOIST/TROPICAL TYPE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST.  BELT OF 30 KT MEAN
FLOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS
WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR
LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE
WEAK...BUT VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACORNS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THOUGH
SHEAR IS WEAK...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO SUGGEST PROFILES WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF AN ISOLATED
MICRO BURST.


**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.