[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231536
SWODY1
SPC AC 231534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 15
NNE MMO 35 N BRL 45 SSW ALO 15 E MCW 25 N OTG 45 N ABR 35 SSW GFK 25
WNW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 70 SW PRC
IGM 50 W P38 20 S 4LW 35 SE LMT 25 SW LMT 50 NNE MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E
SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 40 NNE Y22
20 S BIS 45 NNE BIS 65 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 N ROC 25 NW FKL 15 W HUF
15 N MKC 45 SE LBF 15 SSE SNY 20 NNW LIC 40 NE LAA 10 WNW DDC 60 SE
LBB 40 NE SJT 25 ESE SEP 20 SSW MLC 35 SE FYV 35 SW LEX 10 ENE CRW
30 E HGR 40 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 80 NNW 3B1.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E U24 20 NNW FLG
25 NW SOW 35 SSW GNT 35 ESE ASE 35 E RWL 25 ENE BPI 35 E SLC 40 E
U24.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. 
STRONG SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET IS WELL DEFINED
THIS MORNING DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY.  THOUGH SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL/DRY FOR LATE JUNE...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMPENSATE AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE NOW EXTENDING
FROM NWRN MN INTO SERN ND.  COMBINATION OF INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WILL
SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRONG CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
ERN ND/NWRN MN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT AND SBCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE IGNORED INTO
CENTRAL MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS EWD ALONG FRONT AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
EWD EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE BECOMING MORE LIMITED DUE TO LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM THE ERN U.P. OF
MI INTO ERN IA WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS IT
SHIFTS ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND
SUPERCELLS BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI IN REGION OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR.

...VA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AS
EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT BY 24/00Z.  IN ADDITION...A RATHER WARM AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES.  COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL THEREFORE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL FROM STRONG/MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.  GIVEN THE WEAK
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TIED TO HEATING AND DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON.  SBCAPES WILL LIKELY EXCEED
3000 J/KG...WITH 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING MODEST FOR
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INFLUENCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH ENSUING SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASING THIS
EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.