[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231252
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
DTW 20 NE BMI 25 SSE BRL 15 WNW OTM 15 NNE ALO 20 S LSE 30 S CWA 40
N APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ERI 25 WSW CLE
20 W HUF 25 WSW STL 15 SW CNK 30 WSW EAR 30 NNW IML 25 SSW SNY 25 NW
LIC 35 NNE LAA 25 WSW DDC 25 SSW GAG 40 NNW CDS 45 NNE BGS 40 SSW
ABI 15 SSE BWD 35 NE ACT 45 SSW PRX 25 NE PGO 55 NNE LIT 30 SSW PAH
20 NW SDF 10 NNE UNI 10 NNW AOO 20 ENE ACY ...CONT... 15 SSW BHB 35
NNW BML ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 15 NNE Y22 30 S
BIS 45 ENE BIS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 20 W GBN 75 SW PRC 30
SE EED 45 ESE LAS 45 SSE SGU 35 NE GCN 50 NNE INW 15 W GUP 50 SSE
FMN 35 E GUC 45 NW LAR 25 SSW LND 50 S BPI 25 SW PUC 35 SE U24 55
SSE ELY 50 WSW ELY 70 E 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 40 WSW MHS 20 ESE
CEC 45 SSE OTH 35 SSE EUG 15 E PDX 30 SE OLM 30 ENE SEA 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF VA/NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BELT OF
SEASONABLY STRONG...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. AN
ADDITIONAL LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN.

AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXIST THIS MORNING WHICH MARK
THE LEADING EDGE OF SEQUENTIAL CP AIRMASS SURGES OUT OF CANADA. THE
SRN MOST FRONT HAS BECOME ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SUGGESTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM CURRENT POSITION OF SRN
VA/NRN NC SWWD INTO SERN TX. WITH APPROACH OF MIDDLE TN
DISTURBANCE...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST ALONG FRONT BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF NC. INTERMEDIATE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL LOWER MI WWD ACROSS
SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...AN ADDITIONAL
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
THOUGH 12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF DAKOTAS/MN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/SRN WI SWWD INTO ERN IA/NRN IL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOREOVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES
INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN
MORE DISCRETE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD/NEWD
ALONG FRONT INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

...VA/NC...
MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W.
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF UPPER
60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE S OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY
CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE W LATER THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF MIDDLE TN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AXIS OF 35-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
/PER PLAN VIEW VWP PLOT/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED HAIL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
MLCAPE OF NEARLY 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES INTENSIFYING LINE SEGMENTS OVER S-CNTRL LA MOVING EWD INTO
THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED
ON THE LIX AND 12Z JAN SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH ON LEADING EDGE OF DEVELOPING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORM CLUSTER.

...ERN ND INTO NRN MN...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ALONG COLD
FRONT AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN MANITOBA TROUGH
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT. VERY LOW
WBZ HEIGHTS OF 3.5-4.5KFT SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.

...CNTRL/ERN MT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BOTH ON
SURFACE FRONT MOVING S INTO AREA AS WELL AS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WRN MT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THOUGH... RATHER STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...PROMINENT MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ABOVE 500MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.