[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221621
SWODY1
SPC AC 221619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
ORF 45 E LYH 15 S SHD 15 SSE AOO 30 N IPT 20 WSW MSV 20 NE EWR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
ACT 40 SW HOP 35 SSW BNA 45 WSW CBM 30 W MCB 25 W LFT 25 SSW HOU 35
NNW PSX 55 E ACT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E
LMT 30 SSW MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG
45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 15 SW LND 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40
NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX
55 NE PHX 25 W PRC 20 ENE EED 60 E NID 40 N NID 35 WSW TVL 35 W RNO
30 NE RNO 15 WSW LOL 40 NNW ELY CDC 45 SSW BCE 45 NNE INW 30 ENE GUP
25 SE FMN 50 SSE MTJ 15 NE ASE DEN 45 SSE LHX 25 E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40
ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN 40 W SDF 15 SSE CMH 25 WSW ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTION SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN STATES
INCLUDING DELMARV...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH MANITOBA AS
BLOCKING PATTERN  PERSISTS AT HIGHER LATITUDES NORTH AMERICA.

STRONG MID/UPPER WLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD TO S OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN
PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. 120KT POLAR JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT.

S OF 40N FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER WITH A COUPLE MCV'S REMAINING FROM LAST
NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY SRN PLAINS.  STRONGER OF THE TWO LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL TX WITH ANOTHER NRN AR.

COLD FRONT FROM LE SWWD THRU SRN IND AND THEN ACROSS NRN TX WHERE IT
HAS BEEN REINFORCED  BY COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. S
AND E OF FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN SRN PLAINS/LWR MS
VALLEY...TROPICAL  AIR MASS PREVAILS.


...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
TROPICAL AIR MASS TO S OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE CIN
AND LOW LCLS. WITH 15 TO LOCALLY 20KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...PRIMARILY 
MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD
OF SEWD PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. REF MCD
1378.

...NORTHEAST U.S...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT ACROSS NY/NRN PA WHERE STRONG UPPER JET MAX WILL BE
TRACKING THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG
WLYS ACROSS SRN PA INTO DELMARVA...HEATING WILL BE GREATER AND AS A
RESULT INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.


WITH SFC TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO NEAR
70F...MUCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR MORE WHICH COUPLED WITH
THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. MODE EXPECTED TO BE 
MULTI-CELL GIVEN THE MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SINCE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE 6C/KM OR LESS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WHICH
WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS THAT ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. REF MCD 1379.

OTHER AREAS OF LESS THAN SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE ANYWHERE ELSE IN SRN
PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER.  PULSE SEVERE WILL
BE DOMINANT STORM MODE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH CAPE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 500 J/KG...STRONG FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

HAVE ADDED SERN AZ FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WHICH
STILL INCLUDES WRN NM. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THERE IS
ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE
LIKELY GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.