[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
WAL 30 NNW RIC 20 N CHO 15 SSW AOO 10 N BGM 30 SW PSF 30 SSW GON.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
ACT 15 ESE JBR 45 NNE TUP 30 WNW CBM 15 SE HEZ 40 ENE LCH 25 WSW GLS
50 SE AUS 45 NNE ACT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG
45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX
25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC
45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S
LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N
LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD
INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD
WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING DEEP VORTEX WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD
THROUGH CNTRL CANADA. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THIS VORTEX...THE MOST
NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER: 1) CNTRL GREAT LAKES 2)
WRN ONTARIO...AND 3) OVER SRN ALBERTA. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND
FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD
OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES WWD
ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

...DELVMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS FROM THE NRN APPALACHIANS EWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE/UPPER JET
STREAK OVER NRN OH COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CNTRL
GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. HERE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE COLOCATED WITH NRN
EXTENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70F/...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
TWO SEPARATE MCS/S ARE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. NRN COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WITH LEADING
EDGE FROM CNTRL AR SWWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. THE OTHER IS LOCATED OVER
THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH MCV BECOMING BETTER DEFINED N OF SAT.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS FROM
ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF
REMNANT MCS COLD POOLS INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS.

...UPPER/MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY...
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODERATELY STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN ONTARIO
AND SRN ALBERTA DISTURBANCES MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS
ALONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL
WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.