[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221956
SWODY1
SPC AC 221954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
ORF LYH 50 ESE MGW 35 SSW IPT MSV POU 15 E JFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
GGG 25 W ELD 15 NNW GLH 30 ENE MKL 10 SSW CKV 30 NE BNA 10 ESE CSV
25 W CHA TCL MEI 25 WNW GPT 30 ESE LFT BPT 15 E HOU LFK 15 WSW GGG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE OSC MCW YKN 55
E CDR 50 NNW RIW MQM 55 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E
LMT 30 SSW MFR 35 NE PDX 20 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX
55 NE PHX 25 W PRC EED 30 NNE EDW 50 NNE BFL 50 N FAT 35 WNW TVL 40
ESE RBL 30 SE MHS 65 SSW 4LW 75 WNW WMC 55 SE BAM 50 NE DRA SGU PGA
60 NE INW 20 NNW GUP FMN DRO GUC 10 W COS 35 SSW LIC LAA 40 S LAA 25
E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40 ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN SDF FKL 30 NE BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL GULF STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACRES PARTS OF
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

SOUTH AND EAST OF BROAD...DEEP MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...WHICH
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES...A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT.

...TEXAS THRU TN VLY/GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS BEST REFLECTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT...WHICH CURRENTLY CURVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...IN PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S
DEW POINTS.

DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD.... IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE.  SEVERAL WEAK COLD POOLS ARE ALREADY APPARENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...EMBEDDED WITHIN 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW
REGIME...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY LARGE BUT WEAK COLD POOL HAS ALSO FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AS IT
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO HEATED/DESTABILIZED IN THE VICINITY OF
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN/
NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS LINE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...LIKELY WILL POSE INCREASING RISK FOR
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES.

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH SURFACE HEATING...BENEATH COLD
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL CANADIAN
CIRCULATION.  THIS IS ALONG/NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET AXIS
...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS WHICH BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  FLOW REGIME IS VERY WEAK...BUT
SLOW SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.


**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.