[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220552
SWODY1
SPC AC 220550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
HSE 25 W RDU 40 NW AND 40 NW BHM 25 SSE GLH 55 ESE SHV 35 NE LFK 20
ENE ACT 45 NNE MWL 35 N ADM 10 E FYV 15 S POF 10 NNE BWG 25 W HTS 10
ENE HLG 35 WSW BUF ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 WNW PSM 15 S EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX
25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC
45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S
LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG
45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N
LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/TN
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NOAM TODAY.  ONE LARGE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY SWWD...AS A SECOND LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS MANITOBA.  STRONG BAND OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE
WRN/SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE LATTER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM ALBERTA SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...AND EWD TO
THE NERN STATES.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NRN STREAM
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST...THOUGH
DEAMPLIFYING LATER TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER OH VALLEY
TO NERN STATES.  WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND...
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES TODAY...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. 
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ADVECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES SLIGHT RISK
AREA.  MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP WITH STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. 
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE EWD EXTENT LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.

...ARKLATEX REGION TO THE TN VALLEY...
COMBINATION OF MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OK/NRN
TX MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY.  MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
OK/NRN TX.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY VERY MOIST...AND WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS MAY AFFECT SURFACE
HEATING/SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  NONETHELESS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EWD TO THE
LOWER TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS THIS REGION...AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX.  DESPITE MODEST WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40
KT...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS FROM THE SRN HALF OF AR/NRN LA TO THE
LOWER TN VALLEY...AS A SSWLY LLJ FEED A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO
THIS REGION.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
 
...SRN ROCKIES TO SWRN-SRN PORTIONS OF TX...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NM...AND SURGE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...REACHING A LINE FROM DRT
TO ELP BY 00Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM SRN/SWRN TX...WHILE ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NM.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN UT PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ESE TODAY AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVVS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE COVERAGE.  FARTHER SE...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
TEND TO FAVOR MULTI-CELL STORMS ACROSS SWRN-SRN TX AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS
THIS AREA.  SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROGGED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... WILL
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE TO SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.