[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211651
SWODY1
SPC AC 211650

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
SEP LBB 40 WNW RTN 15 E COS 40 E LAA 40 S DDC 55 NNE ADM 10 SSE FSM
30 W UNO 40 SW STL 15 E SLO 40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 20 NNW
TYR 45 WNW SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT
10 WSW DLN 65 W 27U 20 NE LWS 35 WNW GEG 35 SSW 4OM 40 W EAT 20 WNW
DLS 35 SE AST CLM ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 55 NNE SAD 30 NNW ROW 15 N
LVS 60 SSW ALS 35 S U17 25 SSE CDC 30 N MLF 30 SW EVW 50 NW LND 45 N
CPR 40 WSW MHN 20 SE YKN 75 E ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY
55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 20 NW EPM 40 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 30
ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL KEEP STRONG NLY AND WLY
FLOW FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN PLATEAU. ONLY CLEAR SURFACE FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD OVER NWRN IA AND SERN NEB INTO SWRN
KS AND SERN CO.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AR
SWWD AND WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX...NWWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK HAS BECOME
RAIN-COOLED AS A RESULT OF EARLY MORNING MCS RESULTING IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA.

...SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...

MODELS ADVANCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND
 AND MOVING SEWD FROM CO INTO S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.  MORNING
RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT NWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS OF TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE WEAK CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.  UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
135-145 KT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPPER GEO POTENTIAL
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS UPPER LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA MOVES SLOLY
SWD.  THIS PLACES TX PANHANDLE INTO OK IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION
ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO SRN OK AND
AR...BUT HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN OK.  QUESTION IS WHEN INITIATION CAN OCCUR AS THE MODELS
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN CO/NERN NM BY 22/00Z AND OVER SWRN OK
NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION.  AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 2500 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-45 KT IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SERN CO INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. 
THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...BUT ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO/OK/TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BECOMING ANOTHER MCS ACROSS PARTS OF OK
AND EXTREME NRN TX TONIGHT.

...SC AND PARTS OF NC...

MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING EWD OUT
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

COLD FRONT/ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS IA INTO WI.  SHALLOW CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY ACROSS WI
MAY REACH 1000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AND WOULD
EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.