[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211247
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
MWL LBB 40 WNW RTN 25 SSE PUB 30 SE ICT 40 NW SGF 35 W STL 15 E SLO
40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 30 NNW TYR 15 W MWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY
55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 30
ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW 35 N ROW 40 NNE
LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25 ESE JAC 45 N
CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF
25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25
NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN PACIFIC
EWD ACROSS CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER ERN MT/WRN ND/ ROTATING AROUND CNTRL CANADIAN VORTEX. SEWD
PROGRESSION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL
MN SWWD INTO SERN CO/ WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NERN NM BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...
ELONGATED...MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM S-CNTRL
MO/N-CNTRL AR WWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK...GENERALLY MOVING ESEWD AT
20-30KTS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
INTERSECTION WITH MCS OVER E-CNTRL OK EWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. A MOIST AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S/ EXISTS TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER
TODAY. THOUGH MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...REGENERATION OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...HOWEVER MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR WITHIN REGION OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS HAS
PUSHED WWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF 25-35KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

DIURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER SE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS ACROSS SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER..IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE WITH
MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN OK/NRN TX OVERNIGHT.

...WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI WWD
INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN/CNTRL MO. REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY
MCV/VORTICITY CENTER OVER CNTRL IA. GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON BACKSIDE OF E COAST ANTICYCLONE COUPLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
TODAY AHEAD OF MCV OVER THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. MODERATELY STRONG
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IF POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MT/ND SYSTEM SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF FRONT...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. IF IT BECOMES
APPARENT THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS
OF THIS REGION.

...SERN STATES...
12Z JAX/CHS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP
OBSERVED ON THESE SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK E-W BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.