[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
SEP LBB RTN 50 W PUB GCK P28 OKC FSM ARG POF 20 W PAH 50 WSW HOP 20
NNW TUP 25 SE GLH 20 NNW TYR 45 WNW SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD
...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 S SAD TCS 4CR SAF FMN PGA 20 NW SGU 70 NW
P38 DPG OGD LND CPR 10 NW BFF MHN ANW MHE BKX STC 25 WNW DLH 75 E
ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE AUG 50 N BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT
LVM 10 NE DLN MSO 45 NNW 3TH 63S 4OM 30 SE BLI 15 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY....

BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES.  NEW DEEP CLOSED LOW IS
BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...BUT BROAD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH 
CENTRAL STATES.  ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS REGIME...A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED BOUNDARY NOW CURVING FROM JUST SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR
MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...CONTRIBUTING TO
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.  

CAP APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT WITH FURTHER HEATING...SCATTERED NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION
BY 22/00Z.  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS.

APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING
OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.  RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN STRONGEST CELLS...
AND RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINS OVER
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  THOUGH SHEAR
PROFILES ARE WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL
TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AS
WELL AS IN TRAILING CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BEFORE
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH/WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.