[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210603
SWODY1
SPC AC 210601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
PUB 50 WNW GCK 15 SSE CNK 20 NNW STJ 25 SE UIN 40 SW HUF 35 SSW OWB
45 E MKL UOX 45 SW HOT 25 NE DAL 20 W MWL 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW AMA 45
WNW RTN 25 WSW PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW
35 N ROW 40 NNE LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25
ESE JAC 45 N CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE
DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1
...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF
25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25
NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS
SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG NLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WRN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY
DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SSEWD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS/S AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH
WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN MO TO
THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES BY 00Z.  WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BACK UP ALONG THE CO ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD CDS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MCS/ EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK.

...SRN PLAINS EWD TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND OZARK REGION...
ONE OR TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM SRN IA SWD TO THE OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR. AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO THE LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE MCV/S LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MCS/S MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FROM KS/WRN MO AND SWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THESE STATES...WITH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES FAVORABLE FOR LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER OK.  A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN
CO/NERN NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS KS/MO INTO OK/NRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD.  

A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL TX NOSING INTO OK
WILL SUPPORT AN MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND TRACK ACROSS OK TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

...PORTIONS OF WRN GREAT LAKES TO ERN IA/IL...
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEWD
ACROSS NERN IA/WI TO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL/SRN
WI COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO
NERN IA BY 21-00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
MODELS INDICATE A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /LOWER 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT NNEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO ERN WV/WRN
VA.  SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOIST SLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS REGION
WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN CO...
AN AXIS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  ENELY
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE WITHIN
THE AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50
KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.