[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210058
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
OMA FLV 45 ENE TUL 10 NW OKC 35 NNE CDS 30 NNW AMA 15 NE TAD 25 W
LIC 30 WSW BFF 50 E CDR 30 ESE BUB 45 S OMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 E AUS
30 WNW TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 15 N ABI 35 WNW DRT ...CONT... 35 W ELP 25
SSW ONM 15 S LVS 40 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 15 S ELY 20 S BYI 25 E S80
75 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 ENE HVR 45 NNW MLS 35 W P24 75 NE MOT
...CONT... 40 NE IWD 25 NE EAU 30 W LNR BRL 20 SW ELD 35 SSE GLH 30
W SEM 40 W ATL 40 SSE TYS 25 NE AVL CLT 40 SSW AGS 20 E SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN NEB...AND THEN SEWD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO SERN KS.  OTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARIES WERE
LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ONE OVER NRN OK AND A SECOND EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL TX NNWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.

AT 00Z...ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SWRN SD SWD ACROSS
ERN CO TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH SEVERAL OF THESE CLUSTERS
SHOWING LINEAR STRUCTURE.  AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ESEWD MOVEMENT
OF THESE STORMS.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SERN
CO...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WY IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONGER CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. 
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50+ KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP WITH
ANY OF THE ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. 
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A SLY LLJ OVER WRN TX WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING ESEWD
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES/INSTABILITY GRADIENTS OVER NEB/KS AND NRN
OK.  AS THE MCS/S DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BECOME
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
TOWARD SERN NEB/ERN KS AND CENTRAL/NERN OK BY 12Z MONDAY.

...ERN TX EWD ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES TO FL...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO FL IS FOCUSED ALONG THE
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY TIME HEATING.

..PETERS.. 06/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.