[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202005
SWODY1
SPC AC 202004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
HSI TOP TUL 25 NNE LTS CDS 30 N CVS 35 NW RTN 35 S CPR 35 NNE DGW 15
SE CDR 20 SW BBW 40 SE HSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 45 ENE CLL
TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 35 NNW ABI 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SW DMN 40 SSW
GNT SAF 60 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 35 SW ELY OWY 55 NE BKE 30 NE CTB
...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK ABR 40 NNE BJI 25 NE AUW 15 WSW STL UNO 65
WSW MEM TUP 25 SSW HSV ATL 25 NE MCN 65 N AYS 35 S SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SERN WY/ERN CO/WRN KS/...
PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS SERN CO AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO MOUNTAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
DEEPENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NERN CO AND SERN WY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CO PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS. THOUGH THE LOWER 3 KM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT
A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. REFERENCE WW 499.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY THE TIME THE STORMS
REACH THE WRN KS BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE
MAIN THREAT AS THE COMPLEX MOVES EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT.

...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN KS/OK EXTENDS FROM
NEAR DHT/AMA SEWD INTO NWRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A
CLUSTER AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NWRN AND POSSIBLY N CENTRAL OK WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT.

...EXTREME SRN GA/N FL AREA...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING INTO WRN AL WEST OF TCL. AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG.
THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED
IN NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
...THE VERY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 6 KM SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE SHOULD
BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

..IMY.. 06/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.