[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201633
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
LNK 25 W TOP 40 NW BVO 30 WSW END 30 NW CDS 50 WSW AMA 35 SW CAO 35
N LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 NW BUB 10 W LNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W ANJ 35 S IMT 15
S CWA 15 W MSN 35 ESE MMO 35 S MTO 35 E UNO 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30
WSW CSV 45 WNW TRI 40 S PSK 25 NNW SOP HSE ...CONT... 25 E DUG 65
NNW SVC 45 S LVS 15 NNW RTN 20 SW PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE
15 N PDX 15 NNE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA....

...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA...
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF E/SE CO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NE OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN CO.  MEANWHILE...AN MCS
APPROACHING CENTRAL OK /THAT MOVED OVER SW KS LAST NIGHT/ WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A
25-30 KT LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FEED FROM THE SW.  LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND
WRN KS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. 
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG.  

OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS N/NE
CO...THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SPEED MAX
MOVING EWD OVER NE UT/NW CO/SRN WY...WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SW NEB BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEAK OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY
SPREAD INTO NW KS AND SLOW SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING
ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...AS WELL AS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER
RIDGES.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NE/E
CENTRAL CO THIS EVENING AND INTO W/NW KS BY EARLY TONIGHT.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS BY EARLY
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE DO NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CO/KS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY
BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE STORMS THIS EVENING.

...WY AREA...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT/ID/ORE WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD WY BY THIS
EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  A ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN
ID/NE UT EWD ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

...S GA/N FL AREA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OVER MS/AL THIS
MORNING...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALIGNED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL
GA.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV/S OF THE FRONT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG OVER THE S GA/N FL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON... WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.