[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201248
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
FNB 30 SE OJC 40 ENE TUL 30 S END 65 NE AMA 45 W EHA 25 S LIC 35 N
LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 SSE ANW 20 SE OLU 35 NNE FNB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW
15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE
PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40
WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW
RDU HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH
FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER NE AZ IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO ERN CO AND WRN
KS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A LEE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TX PORTIONS OF FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST AREA WWD THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
TO LIFT NWD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWWD INTO SERN CO BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MCS MOVING SEWD INTO NW OK THIS MORNING IS BEING SUSTAINED BY 30 KT
SLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING
AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON
ITS SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND.

IN EITHER CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
UPSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO...WY...NEB AND
KS.MOISTURE GRADIENT IN VICINITY OF THE TX FRONT REMAINS RATHER
DIFFUSE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS FAR N AS THE KS/OK BORDER. PRESENCE
OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MAY DELAY NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE UNTIL LATE TODAY.
THE NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS
EXPECTED FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND WRN NEB.

INITIAL STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO AND WY WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BELOW 40-50 KT
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE EWD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT..BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
NEB/KS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT
FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD PERSIST INTO PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT.


...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SW TX...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS OF SW TX WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND GENERALLY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...NRN ROCKIES AREA...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SWD
THROUGH MT AND NRN ID. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.