[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192006
SWODY1
SPC AC 192004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30
SSE SAF 25 E ALS 25 WNW FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA CVS 4CR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 55 NW SAD 20
E GNT 35 WNW 4SL CEZ U24 MHS 30 S ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF
55 NE 4BQ HON 40 SSW SPW LWD 40 S SZL UNO DYR 40 NE SDF 30 ENE PIT
25 SSW CXY ILG ACY 25 ENE ISP 20 NNE BML 70 NNW 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO AND N-CENTRAL/NERN
NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGLY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH
OVER ID/WA.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SRN CO AND NERN NM...WHERE GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES
SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 4-6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
MOUNTAINS SHOULD EXTEND EWD TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS/PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
KINEMATICS FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL
VEERING AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN NM INTO FAR
W TX.  DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS REACHING NEAR 30 F BY 22-23Z TIME FRAME.  RELATED
SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIONAL POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE
DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.  APPARENT MCV OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THERE.
 SEVERE THREAT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS FARTHER
N...AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC
SFC CONTRIBUTION TO CAPE.

FARTHER N...ISOLATED TSTMS EVIDENT OVER CO/WY MOUNTAINS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY MOVE OVER SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE APPARENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR
DEN.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST
INFORMATION ACROSS CO FRONT RANGE AREA.  BECAUSE OF LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER CAPPING FARTHER E OVER ERN CO AND NEB
PANHANDLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ORGANIZED SEVERE
RISK INTO KS.  SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE NERN RIM OF 30-40 KT
LLJ WILL SUPPLY AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE.  ASSOCIATED WAA REGIME
WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AFTER
20/06Z...BASED ON MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. OCCASIONAL HAIL OR
GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR.

...RED RIVER-ARKLATEX REGION TO W-CENTRAL TX...
MCV IS QUITE PRONOUNCED IN VIS/IR/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL OK AND N-CENTRAL TX AS OF THIS WRITING...AND SHOULD MOVE
EWD TOWARD SRN AR THROUGH EVENING.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG AND
ABOVE QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS
IN CLUSTERS.  ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK.  ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER W ALONG
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  -- NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY AND SFC
ANALYSES NEAR SEP-ABI-HOB LINE.  A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.  SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND ARKLATEX MCV
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESTRICT
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS MAINE/NH INVOF FRONTAL ZONE.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1347 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS MAIN
CONVECTIVE LIFT ZONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES.

...WRN WY/ID/SWRN MT...
WIDELY SCATTERED CB ALREADY EVIDENT IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THIS
REGION...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 20/00Z. 
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST
CELLS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL
SEVERE OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.