[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191636
SWODY1
SPC AC 191634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 20 W FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA 25 SSW CVS
25 E 4CR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 45 NE SAD 20 E
GNT 35 WNW 4SL 20 NNW CEZ 20 ENE U24 35 N ELY 45 NE U31 20 NNW LOL
25 NNE SVE 35 E MHS 30 S ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF
55 NE 4BQ 45 SW MBG 30 NNW SUX 25 WSW LWD 40 S SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 ENE
ARG 45 ENE DYR 30 S OWB 40 NE SDF 20 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 E HGR
25 W ILG 40 NE ABE 15 NE MSV 40 NNE UCA 45 W MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NM AND CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NRN
ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST. 
ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
PREVAIL.  THOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY NRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO EXPERIENCE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT MODEST SHEAR.

...NM INTO CO/SERN WY...
SURFACE RIDGING...ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX TODAY.  THIS
WILL SHIFT ESELY SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GENERALLY
WWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BECOMING MORE SELY OVER ERN CO INTO SERN WY AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.

WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-40 KT WILL PERSIST FROM ERN WY INTO NRN NM
AND SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS TODAY.  PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR OVER CO/SERN
WY WILL BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.  THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BURN-OFF AND ALLOW LATE DAY
SUN TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR FAVORABLE
TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVERGENT ZONES LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO
SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EWD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO INCREASED CAPPING. WILL LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF SLIGHT TO NRN CO
ATTM...DUE TO GREATER CERTAINTY OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN WY AS WELL SHOULD POCKETS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP.

SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SWD IN NM...WITH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS
THAN 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...HEATING WILL BE STRONG OVER THIS REGION AS
AREA REMAINS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE THIS MORNING.  THOUGH STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE COMMON JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND EVENTS...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ACT
TO LIMIT PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX...
MCV WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NRN TX INTO FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA SUPPORTING VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE IN NATURE... WITH MOST LIKELY
THREATS OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN ROCKIES...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL AGAIN
PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AS WELL UNDER WLY H5 WINDS NEAR 40 KT. 
HOWEVER...LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY
/I.E. MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG / MAY ACT TO MITIGATE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK.  AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT AT 20Z.

...NEW ENGLAND...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF PRIMARY MID/UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION.  LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CLEARING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF SERN CANADA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  LIMITED
HEATING/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ATTM.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.