[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191247
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
PVW 30 NNW MAF 35 SE CNM 30 ESE ALM 50 SSW LVS 35 W COS 20 WSW FCL
45 E FCL AKO 30 NNW LAA 15 NNW DHT 40 W PVW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF
55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 SW P35 35 SE SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 N ARG
25 WSW EVV 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI 25 NNE ABE
40 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35
ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E
MHS 30 S ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

A SURFACE FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...
EXTENDS FROM NRN TX WWD INTO NERN NM. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS
FAR N AS SRN KS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERING FROM ELY TO SELY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER ERN CO AND INTO
NE NM REMAIN FROM THE COOLER...LOW THETA-E AIR RESIDING ACROSS
KANSAS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND OBTAINS A LARGER
SLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME
FROM THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDING OVER TX AND OK. MOREOVER...
WEAKENING UPSLOPE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING WITH TIME WILL MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND CO.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL NM NWD
THROUGH CNTRL CO. EWD EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS IS CONDITIONAL UPON LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT...AND IT APPEARS
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ERN CO WILL MIX OUT SLOWER DUE TO PRESENCE OF A
DEEPER COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NM INTO CO WITH LARGE HAIL
LIKELY...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS
WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF COOL STABLE AIR WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO
 MODIFY. OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM PARTS
OF NRN KS INTO NEB.


...CNTRL/E TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND EXTEND WWD
THROUGH TX. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING N OF AN E-W FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THOUGH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
NOON...DURATION OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO INITIATE. WILL KEEP
THIS AREA IN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY.


...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN VICINITY OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES THIS AFTERNOON. OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AOB 800 J/KG. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..DIAL.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.