[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190535
SWODY1
SPC AC 190533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HOB 25 NW INK 30 NW GDP 40 S 4CR 45 SSW LVS 35 W TAD 25 SSW COS 35 N
COS 15 WNW LIC 40 SSE LIC 40 N CAO 20 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35
ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E
MHS 30 S ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF
55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 WSW P35 20 SW OJC 45 E BVO 25 E FSM
35 NNE LIT 45 ENE PAH 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI
25 NNE ABE 40 WSW MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND
ERN CO...

...CO/NM...

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING
EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD
ACROSS TX DEEP INTO CENTRAL NM...LIKELY WEST OF THE ERN MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES.  RESULTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS CO...WITH A SWD SHIFT TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.

LATEST THINKING IS MOST ACTIVITY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS
EXPECTED.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER.  IT APPEARS
A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN NM...WITH SUFFICIENT VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER NORTH INTO CO...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ERN PLAINS.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS
TO THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION...EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
LOSE INTENSITY AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER LAPSE RATES OVER ERN CO. 
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS FARTHER EAST.

...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CANADA/NERN
U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL FORCE NORTH/SOUTH
WARM FRONT EWD IN ADVANCE OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.  RESULTANT MOISTENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST
DATA/GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIMITED. STRENGTH OF UPPER
SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD AID AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

...INTERIOR NW...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR EWD ACROSS WA/ORE INTO NRN WY
SATURDAY.  BENEATH THIS SHEARING TROUGH H5 TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
COOL WITH REASONABLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS  THIS
REGION TO SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAK TO WARRANT MORE
THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.