[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 182014
SWODY1
SPC AC 182012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
MWL 50 WNW ABI 10 E MAF 25 ESE INK 20 SW FST 35 E MRF 20 SE MRF 20 W
MRF 35 S GDP 25 NNW GDP 25 SE 4CR 25 S LVS 45 WSW RTN 15 ESE ALS 55
NNE ALS 15 ENE COS 35 N LHX 20 W GCK 35 SE DDC 10 SSE P28 30 WNW JLN
40 NNW SGF 30 WSW COU 25 W UIN 20 SSE PIA 10 WSW LAF 40 SSE MIE 35
NE SDF 20 SSE OWB 35 SSE PAH 35 N MEM 25 WNW ELD 45 WNW MWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB
...CONT... 10 NW BVE 25 NE BPT 25 WSW CLL 15 NNW AUS 55 E JCT 35 SSW
JCT 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO
40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW
MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35
N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB
30 ENE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST
TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SRN ROCKIES FRONT RANGE TO SRN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TX...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED FROM SCNTRL/SERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN
HALF NM...WEST TX...AND INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND NWRN TX WITH TIME.
A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND FRONTAL INTRUSIONS BACKING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE HAVE RESULTED IN A COMPOSITE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOST STRONGLY DEFINED IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD FROM SWRN OK WNWWD
TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF SCNTRL CO/NRN NM. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN DRIFT EAST INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY
SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED LIFT...MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM THE SERN TX
PNHDL WNWWD INTO NERN NM. INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH A HAIL AND
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MELD INTO AN MCS AND TRACK
ESEWD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MCS WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS
IT DEVELOPS ACROSS TX PNHDL AND INTO WRN OK.

...MO/IL SWWD TO OZARKS/RED RIVER...
MCV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...POLAR FRONT WAS CATCHING UP
TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND MAY ACTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE EVENING. AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW/MCV EWD TO THE OH VALLEY. LASTLY... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS SERN MO...TO THE OZARKS...AND THEN TO THE RED RIVER.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WITHIN WIDESPREAD VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT FOR STORMS ON THE RED RIVER AND OVER THE OZARKS IS
WEAK AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED WITH
SOME DOWNBURST WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...ASCENT/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN IL AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...
A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS EXIST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT SWWD TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD SOME OF THESE MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS... WEAK
SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET.

...ID...
A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH.
STRONG ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. LARGE SURFACE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW HAIL AND WIND REPORTS.

..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.