[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181636
SWODY1
SPC AC 181634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUB 20
NNW GCK 10 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 30 NE BMI 50 N LAF 25 SSW MIE 60 E BWG
60 SW BNA PBF 35 NW MWL MAF 30 NE CNM 40 E ALS PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 45
NNW VCT 10 SW AUS 35 E JCT 30 SW JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW
ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50
SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S
45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW
FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 40 NW CAR
40 SW BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PRIMARY FRONT APPARENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
AND SWD INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK.  TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN NM.  AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN MO
...WITH YET ANOTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO ERN AR/SWRN TN. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND WEAKLY CAPPED. 
THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE SURFACE FEATURES DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS MODEST...AREAS FROM SRN/ERN
OK INTO AR WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT/ FOR
SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/LEE SLOPES OVER SERN CO AND ERN NM...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ONCE AGAIN INTO ONE OR
MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/MCSS AND TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE/WRN TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF OK OVERNIGHT.

...MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ARE LIFTING
ENEWD ACROSS MO THIS MORNING.  APPEARS HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN IA/N-CENTRAL MO.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN/ERN MO INTO
PORTIONS OF IL/IND/KY. CONWAY PROFILER INDICATED 40-50 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE
ETA.  THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION AS THESE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.  STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.  HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE BY 18Z.  MODELS SUGGEST 25-30 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TEMPORARILY
FLATTENS RIDGING NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SEPARATE
AREA EXPECTED ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.  APPEARS LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL MODULATE ANY SEVERE THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
MODEST SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIND DAMAGE
OCCURRENCES IN STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
THIS AREA WILL UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVERAGE EVIDENT THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER MODEST
COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW SETTLING
SLOWLY SEWD.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.