[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181253
SWODY1
SPC AC 181251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
LHX 15 W GCK 30 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 45 S UIN 20 NNE MTO 55 E BMG 50 W
LOZ 50 N HSV 40 NNE TXK 50 NE ABI MAF 30 NE CNM 30 W TAD 15 N LHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR
40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S
RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45
WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK 30 S ALO
30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20 SW
CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND PART OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE FRONT ESTABLISHING
ITSELF FARTHER S WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SW MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK AND INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE WRN
PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE
ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD
INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER
PART OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN
SE CO TO THE 60S IN ERN NM BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO BE OVER NM INTO PARTS OF
W TX...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED WITH NWD DISTANCE INTO CO DUE TO LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING FROM THE LOWER THETA-E AIR OVER KS.

NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SERN CO WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WITH 30-35 KT ABOVE ELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NM NWD
THROUGH CNTRL CO. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN
NM/SE CO AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS OR TWO DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PART OF TN AND OH VALLEYS...

THIS MORNING A LINEAR MCS ACCOMPANIED BY AN MCV EXTENDS ACROSS WRN
MO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO ENEWD THROUGH SRN IL...SRN IND AND CNTRL/ERN
OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IL AND WRN KY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...


VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NRN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID AND WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.