[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180559
SWODY1
SPC AC 180557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
LIC 45 SSW GLD 35 ENE DDC 15 SSE ICT 10 SSW CNU 45 SSE SZL 35 S UIN
10 W DEC 25 NNE HUF 25 N SDF 35 E BWG 35 SSW BNA 40 S MKL 45 N TXK
40 SSE SPS 30 NE BGS 10 SE HOB 45 ENE ROW 45 NW TCC RTN 30 WSW PUB
35 SW LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20
SW CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP
25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW
TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 45 W GEG 30 N
3TH 25 SSW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK
30 S ALO 30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SRN U.S...AND MODEST WLY FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL BE THE GRADUAL SWD
ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/OK
REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWD SHIFT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO INTO NERN NM...WITHIN
A ZONE OF SUSTAINED ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  IT'S NOT OBVIOUS BASED
ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...OR 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXPECTED AREA OF INITIATION.  HOWEVER...STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO EXTREME SERN CO SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC DEW POINTS FROM THE
50S TO NEAR 60 F AND CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG. 
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE EARLY CONVECTIVE MODE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BY EARLY-MID EVENING.  EWD
PROPAGATION INTO OK SHOULD OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITIONS INTO
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.


...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH...TN VALLEY...

ONGOING MCS FROM KS INTO CENTRAL OK IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WELL AHEAD OF 00Z MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EASILY INTO WRN MO/NERN OK
BY 12Z.  WITH ROUGHLY 25-35KT OF WLY H5 FLOW ACROSS MO INTO NRN
AR...REMNANTS OF THIS MCS SHOULD REGENERATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  MOST LIKELY ZONE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SERN MO/SRN IL BY 18Z.
 IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAP...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.  EWD PROPAGATION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WRN TN IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.