[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180045
SWODY1
SPC AC 180043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
WAL 45 W NHK 30 NW SHD 20 SE PKB ZZV CAK 15 E YNG 25 WNW AOO 35 ESE
CXY 10 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
HOB 40 N TCC 20 NE RTN 25 WSW PUB 20 WNW COS 35 SE DEN 35 NE LIC 10
E GLD 20 W RSL 25 ENE HUT 20 SE ICT 15 W OKC 50 SSW SPS 10 SW ABI 15
S BGS 30 NW HOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 NNE AYS
MGR 15 S PFN ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 40 W AUS 45 S TYR 40 NW ESF 40
SSE GLH 55 ENE PBF 35 ENE PGO 30 ENE DUA 15 NW SEP 35 NW JCT 40 NW
DRT ...CONT... 10 SW ELP 35 NW 4CR 30 ENE 4SL 35 ESE FMN 60 NW GUP
35 SSW GCN 40 NNW EED 45 ENE NID 45 SSW TVL 35 ESE RBL 60 SSW 4LW 60
NW WMC 40 WNW ENV 35 W SLC 30 ESE EVW 40 SSE CPR 25 SW VTN 25 ESE
OFK 20 NNE STJ 10 SSE SZL 10 SSE VIH 25 WSW IND 40 WNW CLE 10 SSW
BUF 10 SSE UCA 20 ENE PSF 15 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 30 W BRD 35
ESE ABR 40 SE MBG 20 ENE MBG 45 SE JMS 35 SSW TVF 35 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
TO THE DELMARVA...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM ERN CO...SEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO THE SE OF
LBB.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLD POOL SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY. WITH TIME ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
SHOULD EMERGE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS LLJ INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM
NWRN TX INTO SWRN KS.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH REASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATION.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE STORM
MERGERS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...IT APPEARS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT MODE AS COLD POOL
DRIVES CONVECTION EWD.

...OH TO DELMARVA...

DEEP WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES
FROM ERN OH...SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA.  THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
THRIVE ON MODERATE INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG...THAT HAS YET TO
BE OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A GRADUAL SWD
SHIFT TO OVERALL ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN
OH...ESEWD ACROSS WV INTO SRN MD BY 03Z.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES THAT
CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES IN A SW-NE FASHION.

..DARROW.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.