[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 172008
SWODY1
SPC AC 172006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SSE LYH 25 SSE BLF 20 WNW TRI TYS 20 WSW TYS CSV
45 N JKL 35 WSW UNI 30 NE PIT 30 W ELM 10 NNW PSF 20 ENE BOS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
ROW 25 SSE LVS 30 SSE ALS 40 E GUC 55 E ASE 30 SE 4FC 30 N LIC 15 W
GLD 45 WSW HLC 25 WNW MHK 25 E MHK 35 SSW OJC 60 NNE JLN 20 W TBN 25
N UNO 20 E UNO 55 WSW ARG 10 N FSM 40 WNW FYV 15 NNE TUL 20 SW PNC
45 NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 ENE ROW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 45 NNW AYS
AGR 15 N PBI ...CONT... 40 N BRO 20 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WSW COT 40
NNE CLL 30 WNW TYR 25 N FTW 10 WNW ABI 30 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT
...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 15 ESE ALM 35 NNE ALM 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ABQ 20
ESE 4SL 40 ESE DRO 15 E FMN 35 N GUP 50 NNW INW 30 SSW GCN 30 NNW
IGM 40 SSW LAS 60 SW DRA 65 SE BIH 20 N BIH 70 SSE TVL 30 WSW TVL 55
WNW TVL 30 ESE RBL 50 W RBL 25 NE 4BK 20 SE EUG 40 WSW RDM 65 NNE
LMT 45 ESE 4LW 75 NW WMC 30 NNW WMC 20 WNW OWY 30 SW TWF 30 NNE ENV
40 W OGD 30 S MLD 20 SSE IDA 50 WNW IDA 35 WNW SUN 40 ESE BKE 35 WNW
BKE 20 S PDT 20 NNW PDT 55 N ALW 15 SW GEG 35 E GEG 45 NNW MSO 20
NNW HLN 45 SE GTF 15 SE LWT 65 N SHR 50 ENE 4BQ 35 E P24 55 N DVL
...CONT... 25 NNW ELO 40 WSW DLH 30 SSW STC 25 NNW OTG 30 WSW MHE 65
E ANW 35 NW OFK 30 WSW OMA 55 NNE FNB OTM 15 ENE CID 35 NNW LSE 30
NE EAU 30 NNW AUW 50 NW TVC 40 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 15 SSW
PBG 15 SSW MWN 30 S AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM EAT 15 W
YKM 35 SE OLM 15 NNE SEA 10 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ/SERN NY
AND DELMARVA...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SRN
PLAINS...

...SERN NY/ERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW
AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS PA.
LOCALLY STRONG SR FLOW AND SHEAR...AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL...
WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FROM NERN
PA ACROSS SERN NY. IN ADDITION...40-45KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO CNTRL PA
WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD
ACROSS NJ/NYC AREAS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WHERE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...CO/NM ESEWD ACROSS TX/OK PNHDLS...
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BACKED WELL WWD INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN/SCNTRL CO AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND
INTO NWRN OK. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DATA AND PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
HIGH SRH...LOW LFC AND ABUNDANT CAPE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM PUB TO LBL. LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS A BIT
WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT...ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SUPPORT INTENSE
AND POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.