[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171245
SWODY1
SPC AC 171242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50
WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 30 NNE PSB 40 NNW MSV 25 N BAF 20 E BOS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ROW 35 WNW PUB 10 WSW DEN 25 S AKO 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 45
NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL
15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP
30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW
EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60
SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW
HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 15 SSW INL 30 SE BJI 30 SE ABR
25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE
MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN / NRN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
ELONGATING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS
FROM WY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AROUND THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...CIRCULATION NOW OVER NV IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FURTHER EAST...UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE
VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AR MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND NRN FRINGE UPPER RIDGE. 
ENHANCED BELT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF SRN LK MI...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SRN KS AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS
LOWER MI INTO NRN PA.  THIS LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY...WITH MOST DEFINED PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE TX OK PANHANDLE
REGION.  FINALLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA / SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO CENTRAL KS / WRN OK...
SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED OVER SERN CO / SWRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW OVER NV.  AIRMASS
SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN 50S
/ LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NERN
NM / SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES INVOF SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK /
KS. 

...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
ACROSS PA / SRN NY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN MS / NRN AR / TN / KY WITHIN WARM SECTOR...AS UPPER VORT
MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG RETREATING
WARM FRONT...AND SWD INTO VA INVOF LEE TROUGH WHERE ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST.

...ND...
MINIMAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF ND / NWRN MN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE -- AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.

..GOSS.. 06/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.