[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170600
SWODY1
SPC AC 170559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ROW 40 W TCC 20 SSW COS 25 SSE DEN 25 S AKO 30 NE GLD 35 NNE RSL 20
ESE SLN 35 N PNC 20 W FSI 65 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50
WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 25 NNE SHD 20 N HGR 40 NNE CXY 10 NE ABE
15 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE FAR
40 W ABR 25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI
10 ESE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL
15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP
30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW
EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60
SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW
HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC/DELMARVA REGION...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...AROUND
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE...INTO SERN CO AROUND PEAK HEATING.  THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO ERN CO...MAINTAINING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DIURNAL SCENARIO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

ONGOING MCS IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO WRN
OK.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW THE HIGH PLAINS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN AXIS OF
2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO.  LATEST
THINKING IS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE RATHER EARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CO/NRN NM THEN SPREAD EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  SUPERCELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...THEN STORM MERGERS RESULTING IN
CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SUGGESTS ANY MCS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...LIKELY ALONG AN
AXIS ARCING FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA...

MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING WHICH MAY AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED AS MODEST FLOW AT 500MB...ROUGHLY 25-30KT...SPREADS ACROSS
WV INTO DELMARVA REGION.  WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO STEEPEN IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...SBCAPES MAY EXCEED 2500J/KG...MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. 
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

...NORTH DAKOTA...

RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR A NARROW AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF
9C/KM...THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.