[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170109
SWODY1
SPC AC 170107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CNM 20 WNW CVS 20 W EHA 40 SE LAA 25 N LHX 15 NNW LIC 15 E AKO 45 SW
IML 30 NNE GLD 25 SW HLC 15 N RSL 30 NNW MHK 30 WSW STJ 15 WNW OJC
35 N CNU 15 NNW END 30 WSW CSM 45 E LBB MAF 25 SSE CNM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
VOK 40 NNW GRB 40 ENE GRB 15 ESE MKE 15 SW MMO 10 N MLI 10 SSE LNR
25 NNE VOK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
LAF 10 NNW TOL CLE 30 S CAK 25 NNE UNI 20 SW LUK 45 NW EVV MTO 30
NNW LAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 40 SW GGW
20 SE GTF 55 SSE FCA 60 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 25 SE HDO
55 NW VCT 20 SSE HOU 10 WSW LCH 10 S ESF 50 ENE ELD 20 ENE HOT 15
WNW FSM 55 E OKC 10 N SPS 35 SW ABI 45 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX GNV 40 W
AGR 50 SSW MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 20 NNW MSV
15 SW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE ELP 30 E 4CR 50
W RTN 40 N ALS 25 SSW GUC 20 ENE CEZ 75 NW GUP 35 WNW FLG 40 SSW EED
20 N RAL 15 N BFL 40 NE MER 30 ESE TVL 35 SE NFL 45 NNE ELY 20 S SLC
55 E MLD 40 NNW JAC 45 E WEY 10 E COD 25 WSW CPR 45 NW BFF 25 NNW
VTN 50 SSE 9V9 20 ENE SUX 20 N FOD 30 SSE MSP 35 S IWD 75 NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS TO THE TX
PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND NRN
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IL TO OH...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

HIGH PLAINS MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS.  THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MATURE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ALONG/NORTH OF EXISTING SFC
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTH OF MHK TO NEAR DDC IN KS.  IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MVC MAY BE DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST BOW-SHAPED CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS.  WITH
AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IT APPEARS THIS MCS SHOULD
CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLY LLJ THAT SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF BOW
SHAPED FEATURE...OTHERWISE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
MUCH OF THE PLAINS ACTIVITY.

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN NM/WRN TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS DOWNSTREAM...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG SBCAPE. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...WI/OH VALLEY...

LONG-LIVED MCS STRUCTURE CONTINUES ITS ENEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN
MN/NERN IA INTO WI.  THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
NEWD-EXTENDING WARM ADVECTION BANDS WELL AHEAD OF MAIN CLUSTER. 
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NON SEVERE AND MAY REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY. 
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CURRENT MODE OF THE CONVECTION...00Z PROFILES
FROM GRB AND DVN SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  NUMEROUS
DEEPENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER SERN IL/IND.  00Z ILN SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH QUITE VEERED THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER...SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35KT. GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROUGHLY 1.75
INCHES...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN
EVOLVE WITHIN THIS EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

..DARROW.. 06/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.