[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162018
SWODY1
SPC AC 162016

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25
WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
GRB 15 NW MMO JEF 65 ENE AMA 25 SSE FST 20 NNW MRF 40 WNW RTN 4FC 40
ENE LIC LNK 25 SE FRM RHI 10 N GRB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB
MDH BLV 20 N CMI 35 S FDY CMH 30 WNW UNI HTS LOZ 65 ENE BWG OWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
GWO 30 S MEM 45 NNE UOX TUP CBM MEI 40 SSW LUL 45 W GPT BTR 30 NNE
LFT 15 NW GWO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT MOT OLF 65
SW GGW 35 W BIL COD RIW CPR 45 S 81V 35 N RAP MBG 35 NE ATY STC 35 S
DLH 35 ENE CMX ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON ...CONT... LRD
DAL 50 ESE OKC OKC 50 W SPS 25 SSW P07 ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 45 SW
ROW 55 NNW ROW 15 SE LVS 35 WSW RTN 55 SW ALS 60 NE INW 10 ESE SOW
65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 55 NNE TRM EDW 15 N SBA 50 N BFL 50
ENE MER 45 SSW TVL TVL U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG OGD 25 NE MLD 35
NNW PIH 35 NNW SUN 30 SSW S80 40 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO/SWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM TX PECOS VALLEY
TO ERN CO/WRN KS PLAINS TO SRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN IL TO SWRN OH AND NERN
KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MS AND PARTS OF SERN
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL CANADA SWWD
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND NWRN STATES.  CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEB/IA BORDER REGION SHOULD MOVE NEWD
TOWARD SRN WI AND LM BY END OF PERIOD...DEAMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT.
PERSISTENT LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED AS WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER ARKLATEX REGION -- SHOULD DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT BEGINS TO
EJECT TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY.  ANOTHER SRN-STREAM TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG LOW LEVEL FRONT OVER NWRN NM.  FRONT EXTENDS NEWD
ACROSS SERN CO...NWRN KS AND SERN NEB TO LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA. 
HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...EXCEPT
FOR LOCAL OUTFLOW INFLUENCES.  ELSEWHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA...REMAINDER NEB...NERN MO AND NERN KS.

...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SEVERE
GUSTS AND TORNADOES -- IS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER MDT RISK AREA.
 IN THIS REGION...UPSLOPE/BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...CONVERGENCE...AND AVAILABLE
VORTICITY.  REF WW 482 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR
NOWCAST GUIDANCE OVER THIS REGION.  30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW --EVIDENT
IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ACROSS THIS REGION -- SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT OF SEVERE INTO EVENING AS INITIAL TSTMS NOW OVER SERN CO AND
RTN/TAD AREAS MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE UP TO NEAR 3500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. FCST
HODOGRAPHS YIELD OVER 200 J/KG SRH JUST IN THE 0-1 KM AGL
LAYER...OVER MOST OF MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.  FARTHER S...TSTMS
INCREASING OVER NRN NM NEAR I-25 MAY INTENSIFY
CONSIDERABLY...PARTICULARLY IF THIS ACTIVITY LASTS LONG ENOUGH FOR
MOIST SECTOR E OF DRYLINE - ESTIMATED 50-80 NM FARTHER E -- TO BACK
WWD INTO CONVECTIVE INFLOW.  REF WW 484 AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

ONE OR TWO MCS OUGHT TO EVOLVE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS
EVENING.  THESE WILL MOVE EWD OR ESEWD TOWARD PORTIONS TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL BEING PRODUCED. 
35-45 KT SLY LLJ FCST OVER PANHANDLES TONIGHT SHOULD AID IN
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...PERHAPS
AS LATE AS 9Z.

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING INVOF DRYLINE...SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX.  REF MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1305.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGIONS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING --
BOTH IN EVOLUTION FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NWRN IA AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION.  REF WW 483 AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.  ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND
STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS ABOVE SFC...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS IL/WI.  THIS IS
RELATED TO ISALLOBARIC BACKING OF FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW. 
PRECONVECTIVE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH 70S F
SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG.  SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA BECAUSE OF
WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NERN KS/MO.

...MS DELTA AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS...
BELT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF
ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- AND E OF A LOW-MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION
EVIDENT ON VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER IL -- ALONG WITH VAST AREA OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OF TROPICAL ORIGINS.  TORNADO PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE ANYWHERE IN THIS BELT...BUT ARE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INVOF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER MS AND INVOF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER INDIANA/IL.
WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET FARTHER S AND E OVER AL/TN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND EVENTS.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 FOR
NOWCAST DETAILS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.