[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161604
SWODY1
SPC AC 161602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25
WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST RTN 60 NNE ALS
20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
MKL 35 SSW PAH 20 ESE MDH 15 WSW SLO 30 SW MTO 15 NNE MTO 25 E IND
20 NW LUK 20 SE LUK 35 E LEX 30 SW LOZ 40 SSE BNA 35 NE MKL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
MLU 45 WSW GLH 40 N GLH 55 SW MEM UOX 25 SSW TUP 45 SSW CBM 15 SW
MEI 40 SSW LUL 30 SSE MCB 35 S HEZ 15 ENE ESF 20 NNE MLU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 45 SW ROW
60 SW TCC 25 E LVS 35 WSW RTN 40 NE 4SL 35 SW FMN 60 NE INW 50 N SOW
10 ESE SOW 65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 20 SE RAL 20 NE LAX 15 N
SBA 40 NNE SBA 20 WSW BFL 50 N BFL 50 ENE MER 45 SSW TVL 15 NW TVL
30 S NFL 15 WSW U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG 10 S OGD 25 NE MLD 35 NNW
PIH 35 NNW SUN 60 SSE S80 30 SSW S80 10 W S80 45 NNE S80 20 SSW S06
55 NW S06 40 NE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 10 WNW MOT
20 NNE OLF 65 SW GGW 35 W BIL 30 NNW RIW 30 ESE RIW 30 W CPR 45 S
81V 35 N RAP 30 NW PIR 30 NE BKX 30 NE RWF 35 S DLH 35 ENE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 30 N JCT 20
N MWL 40 ENE SPS 15 ENE FSI 50 W SPS 65 S CDS 40 NNW SJT 65 WSW SJT
30 N P07 25 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO AND SWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
NEWD TO IA /WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BAND OF WLYS REMAINS ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH S/WV TROUGH
MOVING EWD FROM MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS. IN SRN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY WHILE TROUGH OVER
AZ LIFTS NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES.  A VERY MOIST SLY FLOW PREVAILS
FROM GULF COAST TO OH VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S
ALONG WITH MDT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE 25-30KT OF PREVAILING FLOW.

ADDITIONALLY SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SERN CO AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.


THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS AND
THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL CO.  FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD  TODAY
AS AIRMASS TO S OF FRONT IN WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH A BAND OF 30-40 KT  500 MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM AZ...COUPLED WITH CONTINUED 20-30KT LOW LEVEL SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS.  WITH HEATING
THE AIR MASS THIS AREA WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000
J/KG BY 21Z ALONG WITH MINIMAL CIN.  RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM HIGHER TERRAIN EWD ACROSS MDT RISK
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.  ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN
THE DISCUSSED AVAILABLE PARAMETERS.

FURTHER NE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT SHEAR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP WEAKENS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

...OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS OVER TX LIFTS NEWD...A BAND OF 25-30 KT
SSWLY WINDS FROM BOUNDARY LAYER TO 500MB IS IN PLACE FROM LWR MS
VALLEY NEWD TO WRN OH VALLEY.

WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPE
TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY STL WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IN.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOW LCLS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE.

ADDITIONALLY SIMILAR SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS MS AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS LA.  ISOLATED TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE INSTABILITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. REF MCD 1300.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.