[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161248
SWODY1
SPC AC 161246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST 40 NW CAO 60
WSW COS 20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT
20 WNW FTW 10 ESE OKC 45 NE CSM 45 WSW CSM 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT
...CONT... 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25 NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E
IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH 55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35
WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 75 N
GFK 40 SE P24 45 ESE Y22 30 NNE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW
CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN / NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS DOWNSTREAM BELT OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. INTO SRN ONTARIO / QUEBEC.  A SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED /
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARC CYCLONICALLY FROM NM NEWD
ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW OVER NERN TX WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD / NEWD
AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  STRONGER BELT OF DEEP-LAYER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND THE NRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF PERSISTENT
SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD
TO THE NJ COAST...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
ATTM.  AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...OH
VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. 
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD
TO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION...WHILE RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD
BE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS NY.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG AND NEAR SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE /
INTENSITY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE -- AND IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS ERN CO.  DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY SUGGESTING ONLY
WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. 

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
THE OK / TX PANHANDLES / SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING /
OVERNIGHT.  ACROSS THIS REGION...ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW
NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 30 TO
40 KT AT MID-LEVELS.  RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

MORE ISOLATED MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX ALONG
DRYLINE AS CAP ERODES LOCALLY ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DIURNAL THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.

...LOWER AND MID MS / OH VALLEYS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE UPPER TX COAST
NWD INTO ERN OK INVOF WEAKENING UPPER LOW...AND THEN NEWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / ALONG AND N
OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
ATTM...VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / S OF
SURFACE FRONT. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON --
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE / INTENSITY.
 

JUST AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW / TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER AND MID
MS VALLEY...BELT OF MODERATE SLY / SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS. 
THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP.  THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  OVERALL HOWEVER...VERY
LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. 

...PA / SRN NY / NJ INTO THE DELMARVA...
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...VERY
MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS S OF RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING / SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM INVOF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT POCKETS OF HEATING SHOULD NONETHELESS OCCUR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW STRONGER / DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.  THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
EVENT SHOULD REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...WITH THREAT DECREASING AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.