[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160536
SWODY1
SPC AC 160534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
MCK 35 SSE MKT 30 NNW VOK 20 SSW OSH 20 WNW RFD 15 NNW CNU 65 NNW
CDS 45 E FST 35 W FST 35 SW CAO 30 SW PUB 20 SSE DEN 20 WNW MCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25
NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH
55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35 WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW
MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 10 SSW GGW 30 NE BIL 15 NE COD
45 N CPR 45 NNE CDR 25 ESE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW CMX
...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM ...CONT... 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT 20
WNW FTW 25 NE OKC 30 SW END 45 NNE CDS 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA
SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS SERN CANADA. SRN BRANCH TROUGH ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD FROM THE DESERT SW.

AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/EWD AND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IA/CNTRL
KS INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 
ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF FRONT OVER S-CNTRL/ERN KS POSSIBLY INTO NRN OK/NRN TX
PNHDL.

...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF KS AND NEB ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DEGREE OF
AIRMASS PROCESSING BY THIS CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF ERN CO/KS/NEB PORTION OF FRONT.

04Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF FRONT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO SWWD INTO SWRN KS WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. BY AFTERNOON...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF ANY
ONGOING STORMS. INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
AT THIS TIME WITHIN REGIONS OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STRENGTHENING BRANCH OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO/KS/NEB FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK AND BACKED HIGH LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FARTHER
N...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST IN POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF  MULTICELLULAR OR LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODES WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING  WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER S...STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL COMPONENT
ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD BE
HIGH-BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAINS RELATIVELY
POOR...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS /PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF SRN QUEBEC MAY ACT TO
STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN NY WWD ACROSS PA INTO
NRN OH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND
S OF FRONT. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL DURING PEAK
HEATING.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.