[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160036
SWODY1
SPC AC 160034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
DLH 20 SE MSP 20 S MCW 20 NNE SLN 40 SW GAG 25 SSE LBB 50 NNW HOB 20
SW LHX 25 E DEN SNY 10 SW ANW 30 N AXN 40 NNE BRD 55 SSW DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA
15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC 40 S MTW 25 NW
BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 50 NNE BGS 55 SSE MAF 25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD
20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 15 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 50 NNE BGS ...CONT... 80
SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10 NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW
IGM 35 S DAG 35 WSW NID 20 NNE FAT 25 S TVL NFL 40 SSE BAM 35 SW ENV
40 N CAG 30 SSW CDR 50 NNW ABR 90 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ISN 55 E LWT 60
E S80 15 SW S06 90 WNW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA...WITH PRIMARY REGION OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND INTO NERN CO. WHILE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL MN INTO NERN SD...STRONGER INSOLATION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SWD EXTENT HAVE ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG OVER SERN SD...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS
ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN
PROGRESS ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINES OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOCAL PROFILERS FROM MCCOOK NEB AND
GRENADA CO INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 25-30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...CONVECTIVE
MODE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPANDING COLD POOLS MAY PROMOTE
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND
POSSIBLY WRN KS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER N ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN MN...WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELDS...HOWEVER TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE. IF STORMS CAN
BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS OR BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING OVER ERN NM COUPLED WITH NWWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ACROSS WRN TX HAVE AIDED IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE OK PNHDL SWD INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS. LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS OF 25-35F AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY TRY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDLS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.