[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151947
SWODY1
SPC AC 151945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SBY 10 WSW SHD 25 SSE BMG 40 W FWA 25 NE MFD 30 W ELM 40 NNW MSV BDL
15 NNW BID.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
STC 25 E MSP MCW 50 WSW DSM 20 NW FNB 30 WNW SLN 15 SW GAG 25 SW AMA
35 NW TCC 45 WNW TAD 10 WNW DEN 25 SW BFF 30 WSW VTN 55 SW ABR 45
SSE FAR 30 NNE STC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
MOB 40 E LUL 25 SSE CBM 25 SSW MSL 15 NE HSV 20 WNW RMG 10 WSW CSG
15 ENE MAI 15 NE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10
NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 ENE DAG 30 SE
BFL 45 ESE FAT 60 SE TVL NFL 15 S BAM 40 E EKO 20 SW RWL 30 ENE CPR
10 SSE 81V 45 N PHP 60 ESE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 50
WNW 3HT 40 E S80 45 WSW S06 35 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC
40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15
NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LBB 55 SSE MAF
25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 25 NE CSM 35 WNW CDS 10 ESE
LBB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM
SWRN MN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AL...

...PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...AHEAD OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS RESPONDED TO THIS FEATURE
WITH AN ESELY COMPONENT.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN CO WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED.  IT APPEARS A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  WITH TIME...STORM MERGERS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS
STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD THE LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS
OVER WRN KS AFTER DARK.

FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT
OVER NCNTRL NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SD
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION. 
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE EARLY STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY OVER SD BEFORE
ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO A MORE LINEAR FASHION ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
STORM CYCLE.

...OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

A NARROW ZONE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED QUALITY AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL IND...EWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN PA.  THIS ZONE IS BECOMING
QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF MORE TROPICAL INFLUENCE
SPREADING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS OVER
IL HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL IND WHERE IT CURRENTLY IMPINGES ON E-W
ZONE OF DEEPENING CONVECTION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE OVERTURNING REDUCES INSTABILITY.  LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING/DEVELOPING NNEWD
ACROSS AL/GA ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SERN TX.  HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SUGGEST STORMS MAY ROTATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. 
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...CENTRAL TX...

SWWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION IS APPROACHING CENTRAL TX ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER TROUGH.  WITH NLY COMPONENT ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING.

..DARROW.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.