[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151610
SWODY1
SPC AC 151608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SBY 10 WSW SHD 30 NW HTS 20 ENE MFD 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28
10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E
FAR 50 ESE BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
MOB 20 NE LUL 35 ENE GWO 20 WNW CBM 50 S MSL 15 SW GAD 25 N AUO 25 E
MAI 15 NE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA
15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 125 NNW ANJ 20 N MBL 20 W AZO 20 S
DTW ...CONT... 25 SSE LBB 75 NE P07 30 SSW SJT 45 E SJT 20 ESE ABI
45 SW SPS 20 NE CSM 35 SE GAG 50 SW GAG 30 ESE AMA 25 SSE LBB
...CONT... 70 S MRF 45 W FST 45 NNE ROW 50 SE LVS 25 ESE LVS 35 N
SAF 40 W FMN GCN 60 N IGM 20 S LAS 35 ENE DAG 30 SE BFL 60 ESE FAT
35 SW BIH 50 WNW BIH 35 SSE TVL 45 ESE TVL 75 S NFL 55 SW U31 10 NNW
U31 40 E EKO 25 S EVW 45 NNW CAG 40 S GCC 30 NNW Y22 40 NW JMS 35 E
DVL 50 NNW DVL 30 N P24 65 NW 27U 15 ENE LWS GEG 40 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AL AND ERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WLYS CONFINED TO THE NRN U.S. WITH ONE VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER MT
SHEARS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS.

THE CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW VICINITY UPR TX COAST PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NWD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE THE OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED LOW LEVELS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD INTO NRN
AR WWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE.

COLD FRONT DAKOTAS SWWD INTO WY WILL PUSH E/SE AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ROTATING NWD THRU
CENTRAL MS ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW TX WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR OVER ERN MS AND AL.

IN THE NERN U.S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH 60F DEWPOINTS INTO
ERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG.

AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS FURTHER N ACROSS
NRN NEB/ERN SD WHERE  THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER.

SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20KT MUCH OF CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

FURTHER N THERE WILL BE 30-40KT OF SHEAR ACROSS SD INTO MN ALONG
WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SLY FLOW E OF MS CYCLONIC CENTER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN AL.

...NERN U.S...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA TO S OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG..PULSE SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY.  RISK WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  THREAT
EXPECTED TO END SOON AFTER DARK.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.