[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151258
SWODY1
SPC AC 151256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28
10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E
FAR 50 ESE BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SBY 20 N CHO 20 WNW UNI CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR
25 SSW AZO CLE 10 SSW UCA 30 ENE EFK ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE
JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG 10 WSW SAF GCN LAS 25
ENE EDW 45 NNE MER 10 SW TVL 50 W TPH 45 N ELY 25 E SLC 25 SE VEL 25
N CAG 30 NNE RWL 50 ESE WRL 30 SE 81V 45 ESE REJ 15 E DIK 25 W ISN
30 SW GTF 20 SSW S06 25 N 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS /
MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OH EWD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BELT OF WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD..WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE WITH
TIME FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC MOVES EWD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SECOND TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM WRN CANADA /
THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  AS WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS QUEBEC / SRN ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE FURTHER SWWD THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND WWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WRN FRINGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM
FRONT...ACTUAL RETURNING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
/ MO VALLEY REGION WILL BE CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED AS A RESULT OF
ONGOING KS / NRN MO CONVECTION.  QUALITY OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS
WILL MODULATE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESEWD
ACROSS KS...THOUGH LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF KS / ERN NEB / SWRN IA
/ NRN MO.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS NEAR LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.  

ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...RETURNING MUCH OF AIRMASS RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER 
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR HAIL /
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN SD AND MN.  GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD AHEAD OF FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

FURTHER SWWD WRN NEB / ERN CO / WRN KS...PERSISTENT SLY / SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD ADVECT MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS / UNSTABLE AIRMASS NWWD.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT BY AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS / WRN AND
CENTRAL NEB.  

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN CO / WRN KS...VEERING PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW MULTICELL OR WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD MORE CLEARLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  

STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS NEB / WRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.  STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO EXPAND NWWD INTO SERN WY WHERE
MORE ENELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THUS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
EVOLVE.  EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCSS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.  

...SERN OH EWD ALONG THE MASON / DIXON LINE INTO THE DELMARVA...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD AND BECOME INDISTINCT...BUT WILL BE
REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON BY SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  WITH UPPER 60S
/ LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION S OF
FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON.

HAVING SAID THAT...LARGE-SCALE / MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LACKING.  MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED UPPER JET AXIS -- BOTH NEGATIVES IN TERMS OF
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  

THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS / A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO TO
DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MODERATE
/ ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
DOES EXIST.  EXPECT THOUGH THAT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE
FACTORS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. 

...LA / ERN TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS THIS REGION / INVOF UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..GOSS.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.