[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141957
SWODY1
SPC AC 141955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
MSS UCA 10 NW BGM 40 NNE PSB 25 NNW PIT 20 SW MFD 25 SSW FDY 30 E
FWA 25 SW FNT 65 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
BML BAF 20 ENE ABE 40 SSW AOO 20 N LEX 25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END LAA 35
WNW AKO 10 S AIA 35 W MHN 15 ENE EAR 20 WNW FNB 10 WNW PIA 15 WSW
CGX 35 W MKG 65 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF
15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N
DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40
SW RKS LAR 35 N BFF 25 ENE RAP 40 N REJ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY
20 NE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 40 SW TVL
25 WNW TVL 35 E TVL 35 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 45 NW NID 40 NE MER.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MMO 25 NNW MKE
35 NE LSE 40 NNW MKT 25 E BKX 15 ESE YKN 10 NNE OMA 20 N BRL 30 NNW
MMO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI
20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER
MI/NRN OH INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...LOWER MI/OH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 45-50 KT INTO SWRN
ONTARIO AND ACROSS NRN OH THROUGH 23Z. STRONG INSTABILITY DUE TO
AMPLE HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN LOWER
MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/WRN NY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  THOUGH
SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS /I.E. > 65KT/ AS OF
20Z... WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WARRANTS MAINTENENCE OF
MDT RISK ATTM. AS HEATING ABATES AFTER 02Z...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH.  HOWEVER... STRONG COLD POOL AND SUFFICIENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL INTO CENTRAL/NERN PA AND TOWARDS WRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

NEARER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
INCREASE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MID EVENING.  AIR MASS IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR EVIDENT ON ILN/S 18Z SOUNDING FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SRN IL WWD INTO KS...
WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER SERN KS/WRN MO. 
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES
DRAPED IN A E-W FASHION ACROSS THE REGION.  THOUGH LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST...SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE MID EVENING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. 
GIVEN ORIENTATION OF MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO LARGE SCALE
WNWLY FLOW...STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO SRN IL SHOULD ACTIVITY
CONSOLIDATE ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW.  THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT
OF WIND DAMAGE.  OTHERWISE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM VERY
LARGE HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO WITH HIGH BASED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD LATER TODAY.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AFTER DARK ALONG 40+ KT SLY LLJ AXIS.  MCS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NRN KS/NEB.

...NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR VORT
CENTER MOVING INTO WRN ND. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1269./  AS LLJ
INCREASES AFTER DARK...ETA AND GFS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION/MCS
MAY FORM INTO ERN SD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED... MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SERN INTO COASTAL BEND REGION OF TX...
RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS/MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..EVANS.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.