[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
EFK 20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 ESE SBY 15 S CHO 10 ESE EKN 15 SE JKL
25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END 30 NNW LHX 35 SW DEN 15 N CYS 10 SSW AIA 35 SE
LBF 30 W BIE 20 SE EAU 25 NE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB
40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF 20 NE AMA
25 ENE DHT 30 SSW CAO 35 NNW LVS 10 WSW 4BL 30 NNW SGU 40 ESE NID 30
ENE FAT 30 N FAT 30 E SAC 45 WNW RNO 10 WSW RNO 50 NNE BIH 50 NNE
U24 35 E VEL 45 SSE RWL 35 N LAR 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 50
ESE BIL 20 E GTF 50 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ORF 10 S GSB
CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST / RELATIVELY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CANADIAN
TROUGH.  MOST OBVIOUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD WLY FLOW
REGIME IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ATTM -- AND IS CONTRIBUTING
TO MAINTENANCE OF STRONG / SEVERE STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER SRN IA /
NRN MO / NWRN IL.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO
UPPER MI...WHILE WEAKER / SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS INDICATED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS.  WITH TIME...CENTRAL U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SETTLING SWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
ONGOING STORM CLUSTER MOVING INTO WRN IL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND INTENSIFY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  

STRONGEST WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE OH
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI INTO THE NRN HALF OF
OH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH DEEP-LAYER 30 TO 50 KT WLY FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL AS IA / IL STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD AND
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD CONTINUATION OF IA / IL STORM CLUSTER --
WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN PA / WRN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  THREAT
MAY PERSIST AS FAR EWD AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...MO / KS...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO ERN KS
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO /
IA -- AND EVENTUALLY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT -- MOVES SWD.

AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF STORMS / OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS COMMENCES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS / SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS -- THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.


...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS WRN KS / ERN CO
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. 
HOWEVER...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
 ACROSS NERN CO -- AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SEWD INTO WRN
KS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND INSTABILITY
LIMITED...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 35 KT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO HAIL.  ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AFTER DARK GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD /
NWWD INTO SRN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  VERY MOIST / LOW TO MID
70S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS OVER THIS REGION...BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST LITTLE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR.  NONETHELESS...LOW LCLS AND MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A VERY LOW-END THREAT
FOR A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO WITHIN ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.