[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150039
SWODY1
SPC AC 150037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
SBY 10 E LEX 15 NNE TUL 10 NNW GAG 30 SW LHX COS 35 ENE CYS 35 W MHN
20 NNE EAR 45 SE OMA 25 NW PIA 30 ESE SBN 30 ESE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 20 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY
20 NE CRE ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ
...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S
JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15
ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS 40 NNW LAR 40 ESE DGW 45 SSE
81V 40 ENE 4BQ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 15 S TVL 20
W NFL 30 NE ELY 50 NW MLF 20 E DRA 25 NNW NID 40 NE MER.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLI 20 SSW MSN
20 ENE LSE 30 ENE MKT 25 NNE OTG 35 NNE SUX 60 ENE OMA 30 SW CID 30
N MLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES AND DELMARVA REGION...

...NERN STATES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF
NY/PA MOVING EWD AT 40-50KTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 00Z
BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THOUGH
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY TONIGHT. 

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SW OF SYR AND NW
OF UCA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS
THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD.  

FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN PA...WV...MD
INTO DE AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON SRN
PERIPHERY OS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING
30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS ENEWD INTO NERN MO. DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH
ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CO FRONT
RANGE. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE
E...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF ELY/SELY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BENEATH 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KTS IS RESULTING IN
MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...DAKOTAS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT ATTM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL ND. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT
SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING...AND
FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND /OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..MEAD.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.