[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140544
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SBY 10 WSW RIC 30 SSE OWB 30 E BVO 30 SSW EHA 35 NNW LHX 10 ESE FCL
25 W BFF 20 SSE PIR 20 S EAU 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 10 WNW EFK 20 WSW
ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 30 WSW GSB
10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB 40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20
WNW ANJ ...CONT... 100 SSE MRF 40 NNW PVW 35 SW RTN 50 SSW ALS 35
WNW U17 40 NNE DRA 15 N NID 30 ENE FAT 30 SSE TVL 40 ESE NFL 10 ESE
SLC 30 SW RKS RWL 35 SSW DGW 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 50 SSE GDV 15 NE
GTF 35 SSW FCA 50 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BELT
OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THIS AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AND BE FOCUSED ALONG A
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WWD
ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO CNTRL KS.

...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
QUASI-LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM WRN NY/PA SWWD INTO ERN
OH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF
PA/NY. SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD
OF SYSTEM OVER WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC
COUPLED WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS REGION.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS.
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
A SMALL MCS OR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY
OVER IA/MN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS.
 DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER
TODAY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS. DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OBSERVED FROM CNTRL IA ENEWD
ACROSS SRN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI MAY FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS GIVEN THE
CO-LOCATION OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR COMMA HEAD
STRUCTURES.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SWD OVER CNTRL KS TODAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HERE... STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
30-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE REGIME
OVER ERN CO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

OVERNIGHT...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL
NEB/S-CNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO
1000-2000 J/KG. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS SHOULD AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REACHING
SRN LA LATER THIS MORNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.