[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140032
SWODY1
SPC AC 140030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
ART 35 WNW IPT 45 NW AND 20 W TCL 30 NNW GLH 40 NE HRO 35 ENE SZL 30
WNW TOP 30 SW HSI 15 WSW BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI
10 SE ADM 20 WNW PGO 30 W FYV 20 SSE CNU 15 N PNC 35 WNW OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK
45 N HOB 25 N CAO 50 NNW IML 50 ENE AIA 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE
4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB
30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI SWD INTO ERN
IND/OH. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UP OF MI IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA TONIGHT.

MODERATELY STRONG AXIS OF MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 45-55KTS AT 500MB/
COUPLED WITH INCREASING COLD POOL PRODUCTION WITH EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE LINES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...CURRENT REGIONAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INDICATE VEERING WIND PROFILES
THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING 100-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH.
THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINES
AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES THEMSELVES. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT...FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXPANDING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

...TN VALLEY... 
AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOCAL VWPS INDICATE WEAKER WIND
PROFILES THAN POINTS TO THE N...A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS PER RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS. THOUGH
AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL/CNTRL SD. 

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...NOCTURNAL BRANCH OF LLJ IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL IA. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ALONG LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS FROM ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN SWD
INTO FAR ERN NEB AND IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.