[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132000
SWODY1
SPC AC 131958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
ART 20 ENE CRW 45 NW AND 10 W BHM 10 SE TYR 30 E DAL 30 E DUA ARG 15
WSW STL 40 NNE SZL ICT 15 NE CSM 50 SW SPS 60 ESE LBB 30 NNE PVW 45
NW GCK 30 SW HSI 10 ESE BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI
10 SE ADM 15 WNW PGO 30 W ARG 55 NW POF 15 E VIH 25 ESE SZL 10 N CNU
30 WNW PNC 35 WNW OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB
30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK
45 N HOB 25 N CAO BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL U.S....

...WRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MI...
THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES...PRIMARILY
ACROSS LOWER MI...THOUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA
WAS NOW LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI...AHEAD OF LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT-FEATURE.  SECOND
FALL CENTER IS OVER CENTRAL IND...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN IND. 
THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WI.  WITH AXIS OF NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY NOW OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF LOWER MI...ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER LAKE MI/WRN
LOWER MI/IND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING.  SWLY LLJ WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
OVER MI...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  OTHER
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND CONCURRENT POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR NOW
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS WI AND THE U.P. OF MI THIS EVENING.


...TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS SWWD INTO ARKLATEX...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
EVOLVED NEAR A COUPLE OF NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY UNTIL A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS
ACROSS AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY.

FARTHER SW ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE FROM NERN TX INTO SERN AR/NRN MS...WHERE MLCAPES ARE
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS THIS
REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER NORTH...AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK
UPPER LOW NOW SHIFTING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR.  ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
EFFECTS OF INTENSE MESO-HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...WHERE FURTHER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
UPPER LOW MOVING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH /IF
ANY/ THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.  MORE LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...A FEW OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE...WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND INVOF DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN
TX/NWRN OK/WRN KS.  OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF
ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER...AS CAP AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO NRN
MO/SRN IA/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
OVER THESE AREAS.

...SD INTO THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING SPREADING EWD OUT OF SD ALONG NOSE OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD THE THREATS
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TOWARDS THE MID MO/NRN MS
RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM
SERN GA INTO CENTRAL AL.  DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK...AND SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

..EVANS.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.