[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131545
SWODY1
SPC AC 131543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
BUF 10 ENE BFD 30 ENE PKB 30 NNE CRW 35 SSW CRW 35 ESE TRI 65 S TYS
GLH ELD PRX 25 SSW FSI GAG 30 N GRI 25 ENE PHP 25 SW MBG 30 ENE MSP
45 SW ESC 20 W ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 20 SSE LBB
25 WSW LBL 20 SE HLC BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 30 SE BTM 15 SE PUW 30
N 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB
30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL U.S.
WEST OF APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH THIS AM FROM UPR MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS WILL
SPLIT AS STRONG BAND OF WLYS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES
INTO NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON.

THE NRN PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE SRN PLAINS PORTION IS SHUNTED SWD
THRU TX TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW TX COAST 12Z MON.

OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS MOVED FURTHER S THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH BOUNDARY SWD TO RED RIVER AND NRN AR. THE 
LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN A REDUCED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE PREVIOUS MDT RISK AREA
CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER MI...
WILL CONTINUE THE MDT RISK LWR MI AS 12Z ETA RUN STILL BRINGS A
40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 30 KT AND THE
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  ADDITIONALLY THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OH VALLEY IS
MOVING NWD WITH MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS MLCAPES RISE TO
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

...LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL U.S. FROM APPALACHIANS WWD TO PLAINS...
REF MCD 1241

WITH UNSTABLE AIR STILL AVAILABLE EWD TO APPALACHIANS AND 30 KT  OF
SHEAR SWD TO TN VALLEY...AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA FROM MID MS
VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH
MLCAPES LOCALLY TO 3000 J/KG AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WHERE
STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES.

RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS WILL TAKE MUCH
OF DAY IN CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MDT SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SRN PLAINS.  SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION...THUS
A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT IS THE CURRENT FORECAST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS FROM NRN
ROCKIES...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  ETA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS SRN MN/IA FOR AN
INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OVERNIGHT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.